Despite the scientific consensus and the evidence released in IPCC reports on climate change, I was overwhelmed by the number of Miami residents I encountered (in the university classroom!) last summer, who are unaware or in denial that sea level rise will alter their lifestyles in the foreseeable future. But who can blame them when the skyline has nearly doubled in size in the last few years, mostly paid for by South American wealth! It doesn't help either that the state governor, Rick Scott (R), forbids the use of the term 'climate change' in government legislation or that environmental impact assessments to build new nuclear energy infrastructure along the South Florida coastline does not account for flooding related to sea level rise.
While glaciers melt, the ocean threatens the city's infrastructure, not only from the eastern and southern sides of the peninsula, but also from below. Saltwater 'intrudes' into the aquifer, threatening the city's sole source of ever depleting drinking water, at least until we figure out a way to bring down the costs of desalinization. It also bubbles up from below, preventing the city's stormwater from being flushed out. The South Miami Mayor, Phil Stoddard, had me over for an early dinner one rainy summer afternoon. He took me out to his yard (see Jack Black's
video) to show me what this looks like. He has a small well in his yard, and you can see the saltwater is just a meter below the surface. The water table rises with each major rain event. He told me he's even seen fish swimming in the lawn when the water table gets really high.
Meanwhile, every King Tide or heavy storm, the pumps overflow and the streets of Miami Beach and Downtown become an urban saltwater swamp. Miami Beach's residents know what is up; that's why Mayor Levine of Miami Beach, has managed to garner political support to invest in road raising and sewage pumps to buy the city time, perhaps 20-30 years? He also has close ties to real estate interests-- Levine's friends would hate to see million dollar investments lost in the form 'stranded assets'. This, in addition to a relatively strong tax base, given that Miami Beach is advantaged by being one of more densely populated areas of the city, propel Levine to engage in cautious climate change adaptation.
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| Road raising on Miami Beach |
The Mayor of Miami Dade County, Carlos Gimenez, is faced with an obvious decision of upgrading the city's basic infrastructure to enable a decent quality of life. But he has yet to give the green light to the water and sewer department to upgrade infrastructure. Considering the last mayor lost the election due to his plan to raise tariffs (yes, most Floridians despise paying taxes, even if it's to guarantee even a basic quality of life), Mayor Gimenez is concerned about taking a bold step for his city. He could choose to reallocate funding (which is currently being used irresponsibly) towards upgrading the county's network of sewage pumps run by the County's Water and Sewer Department (WASD). This infrastructure does not meet the Army Corps of Engineer's standards of adequate infrastructure, leading to illegal discharge of sewage into the ocean well above the EPA's clean water limits. Environmental NGOs like Miami Waterkeeper have been among the few to challenge the WASD on this matter through recent lawsuits.
Gimenez might even consider moving the most vulnerable sewage treatment plants further inland, a highly costly investment. I personally would place priority on the Central Wastewater Treatment Plant on Virginia Key, a barrier island which is very visibly experiencing erosion and is prone to severe storm surge flooding. You can see below in the GIS analysis how it is fully submerged in the case of a 100 year flood. A local geologist, Hal Wanless, doesn't even believe this site could withstand a medium strength hurricane, let alone a 5 ft. projection of sea level rise.
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| A GIS analysis some team mates I conducted to resemble the impacts of sea level rise on Miami Dade County's infrastructure, including the core infrastructure (sewage pumps) and institutions that support economic vitality in the city |
Based on a site visitation and analysis, the Sea Level Rise Toolbox App, provided by Florida International University's GIS Department, and a local area contour map, a few classmates and I built this model of sea level rise on Virginia Key. We had to reimagine how people would experience the island in 2075 (assuming a 6 ft. sea level rise scenario). This involves thinking about new modes of transport as current modes of access to the island (i.e., the Rickenbacker Causeway) become obsolete. Perhaps we will finally begin using ferry transportation? Maybe, instead of walking through the island on boardwalks and along the sandy dune paths, people will have to use canoes and kayaks to experience the heritage and natural aspects of the island. Perhaps, viewing towers on stilts will become the new attraction?
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| An art piece displaying Virginia Key in 2075 |
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| The land surface on which the Central Wastewater Treatment sits becomes an island |
This thought experiment got me thinking of how communities around the world live with water, from the coastal areas that have adapted post-Sandy to the stilt villages in Borneo and Venezuela. The concept of low impact design sounds warm and fuzzy, but considering what I am about to express next, we may also have to consider large-scale technological innovation spurred by water management consultants like Arcadis and technical universities at home and abroad. Some ideas circulating include sprays that act as a water-resistant membrane to form a protective layer between new constructions and the ground. We might also follow the example of the Dutch, who have engineered their way out of flooding and are always experimenting with novel construction mechanisms that might enable us to 'colonize' the ocean and enjoy a floating utopia lifestyle. Perhaps Miami can just copy Dubai. While I don't agree with these quick fix solutions, they are something to think about, especially since coastal cities around the world will all be dealing with similar threats. But we can't forget that South Florida's unique topography and geology makes it particularly vulnerable.
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| Sketches of low impact design observation towers for a flooded Virginia Key |
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| 3D models of designs for a flooded Virginia Key - a ferry terminal? an observation tower? |
For the rest of the city, which is zoned for relatively low density, 'village governments' don't have enough of a tax base to justify infrastructure upgrades. Now imagine that insurance companies stop insuring homes-- is there such a thing as climate change insurance? When a major event hits, who will pay to restore these neighborhoods? After that (assuming the rate of sea level rise is rapid and no infrastructure upgrades have been made to the rest of this stormwater infrastructure), Greater Miami, a region of 4-5 million, becomes unlivable. Our city is maybe the second or third city in the continent with the most other languages spoken other than English-- it is a city of immigrants, many of whom came here very recently. What happens when you have to depopulate an area of people who have already experienced exile or displacement in the last 50 years, either from Haiti, Cuba, or Venezuela? Where will they go? These might be the first North American climate refugees. These are the cultural considerations of climate change; Miami will become the frontline.
Disclaimer: the photos featured above display a mix of individual and/or collaborative work
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